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Nationally and locally, today’s market is uniquely challenged with interest rates approaching 8%, extremely low inventory, the devastating wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and changes in national and local regulations. In Pitkin County, our inventory metric inched up 5% higher than last year, whereas in Aspen alone it was 15% higher. Note that last year was the low tide mark, ie, the historic low for inventory of all available property, so a slight increase is not saying much. Demand is still high, especially for “MOVE-IN READY” options, due to the daunting process required to acquire building/demo/remodel permits (see link in green, below). Demand is high enough that prices upvalley in Aspen/Snowmass still remain strong. Similarly the midvalley markets of Basalt, Carbondale and downvalley in Glenwood continue to experience record property values. NEW BUILDING RESTRICTION : Effective immediately in Pitkin County, the maximum allowable size of a home was reduced from 15,000 SqFt to 9,250 SqFt. The county government is also looking at updating the energy code which would impact pools, spas and snowmelt systems. ***This building size restriction will make existing large estates even more valuable, fueling the already spiked demand for ultra-high-end properties, up to a staggering $76m (see #4 below). _______________________________________________________________________________ QUESTION: “How’s the market”
ANSWER: “It Depends” Even though Aspen is only 3.5 square miles, there are several micro market segments with their own diagnostics: 1. The Aspen condo segment up to $5m: Prices holding steady with the median sold price just over $3,000 per sq ft (as of Oct 1 2023, Aspen only CONDOs). 2. The $5-$10m SFH segment of the market has an extreme inventory shortage, and the properties generally require significant work. Take for example, the tear-down half-duplex at 823 Bonita Dr listed for $4.95m (land only). Entitlements are for a new half-duplex with approx.4000 sf including 2000 sf below grade. Allow 3-5 yrs, plus costs for land, permits, architecture fees, building costs, soft costs: TOTAL: approx. $15m + time, energy and easily 100,000 decisions. 3. The $10m-$20m segment. This price range offers the most inventory. The challenge is that we often see wealthy owners who are “LISTERS rather than SELLERS”, in an exercise to see what the market will bear. Strong product is well priced, in good location, new or updated, with luxury finishes and decor. (*See two of my outstanding lisitings below) 4. Then there is the ultra-high-end with sold prices from $20,000,000 up. The record price was set recently for a SFH which closed for $76,000,000. This segment is not surprisingly impacted by the estimated 120 billionaires who own property in Aspen. Similar to the trade which I co-brokered for $45,000,000, many of these marquis sales have sold privately. That is, they were not listed in the MLS before and sometimes after closing. Data may only be findable via public assessor records. FYI: There is a recent listing for $105,00,000, near Kevin Costner’s ranch, which is being sold by the Florida resident who purchased Aspen’s record breaking property for $76,000,000. Perhaps this will be Aspen’s first $100+ million dollar sale? 5. OVERALL: In Aspen/Snowmass, on average, real estate has appreciated 20% annually over the last decade (since 2012). Aspen and the valley is one of the most desirable places to live in the world for its unique combination of amenities and offerings. From an investment perspective, Aspen-area Real Estate offers real-life experiences , the backdrop to make lasting memories, and the opportunity to create legacy.
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